What if tokyo

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Only the IOC has the authority to cancel the Games. But if Japan decided to turn them into a practical impossibility by, for example, imposing watertight travel restrictions on all overseas visitors, it would have to bear the costs and compensate the IOC for any losses resulting from claims by third parties. Those claims could run into billions of dollars. The prospects of an IOC-led cancellation are practically nil. But Suga must first see off potential challengers at a leadership election in September, and has reportedly calculated that a relatively trouble-free Olympics would boost his chances of leading the party to the polls a month later.

A coronavirus state of emergency has been extended in the capital Tokyo and three other major prefectures as cases continue to rise. Yet there's been no word about cancelling the Games, despite both health experts and public opinion being stacked against them. Japan has long insisted there was no question the Olympics, which should have taken place last summer, would be held and will be safe.

Yet earlier this week, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga for the first time appeared to bow to the pressure of public opinion, saying that the government would "not put the Olympics first" - but adding that ultimately, the decision would lie with the IOC.

So who actually wields the power to cancel the Games - and is a cancellation likely to happen? The contract between the IOC and host city Tokyo is straightforward: There's one article regarding cancellation and it only gives the option for the IOC to cancel, not for the host city.

And as the "owner" of the Games, it is the IOC that can terminate said contract. One reason given to justify a cancellation - aside from things like war or civil disorder - is that if "the IOC has reasonable grounds to believe, in its sole discretion, that the safety of participants in the Games would be seriously threatened or jeopardised for any reason whatsoever". Arguably, the pandemic could be seen as such a threat.

The Olympic charter also stipulates that the IOC should ensure "the health of the athletes" and promote "safe sports", Mr Mestre says, but despite all this, the IOC seems determined to go ahead. The sports law expert explains that the contract is fairly typical and that of course Tokyo knew what it signed up to.

What it didn't know was that a global pandemic would enter the picture. It is a huge event and there are huge contractual obligations for all sides. Hence, the only realistic scenario is Japan pulling the plug jointly with the IOC, staying within the framework of their contract. If that happens, that's where insurances would come in: The IOC has insurance, the local organising committee has insurance and the various broadcasters and sponsors will also have insurance.

Muto, a former top financial bureaucrat with close ties to Japan's ruling party, is known for his careful choice of words, while officials are facing a domestic public angry about coronavirus restrictions and concerned over a possible spike in cases triggered by Games attendees arriving from abroad. But experts see gaps in an Olympic "bubble" that mandates frequent testing and has been designed to limit participants' movements.

People queue up to get their picture taken in front of the sunset on top of Shibuya Sky observation deck, ahead of the Tokyo Olympic Games, in Tokyo, Japan, July 19, Seiko Hashimoto, who sits alongside Muto as organising committee President, said that safety measures introduced to reassure the Japanese public had not necessarily done so, and that she was aware that popular support for the Games had dropped.

The first major test of how an Olympics can be held in the midst of a pandemic may well come in the men's soccer tournament, when Japan face a South Africa side that could struggle to field 11 players due to the coronavirus.

That match is due to take place on Thursday, a day before an opening ceremony that top sponsor Panasonic Corp.